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Intuitive statistics by 8-month-old infants.
Full Abstract
Human learners make inductive inferences based on small amounts of data: we generalize from samples to populations and vice versa. The academic discipline of statistics formalizes these intuitive statistical inferences. What is the origin of this ability? We report six experiments investigating whether 8-month-old infants are "intuitive statisticians." Our results showed that, given a sample, the infants were able to make inferences about the population from which the sample had been drawn. Conversely, given information about the entire population of relatively small size, the infants were able to make predictions about the sample. Our findings provide evidence that infants possess a powerful mechanism for inductive learning, either using heuristics or basic principles of probability. This ability to make inferences based on samples or information about the population develops early and in the absence of schooling or explicit teaching. Human infants may be rational learners from very early in development.
Author information
Author/s: Xu, Fei (F); Garcia, Vashti (V);
Affiliation: Department of Psychology, University of British Columbia, 2136 West Mall, Vancouver, BC, Canada. fei(-atsign-)psych.ubc.ca
Journal and publication information
Publication Type: Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A), published in United States. (Language: eng)
Reference: 2008-Apr; vol 105 (issue 13) : pp 5012-5
Dates: Created 2008/04/02; Completed 2008/04/23; Revised 2008/11/20;
PMID: 18378901, status: MEDLINE (last retrieved date: 2/18/2009)
Sourced from the National Library of Medicine. Abstract text and other information may be subject to copyright.
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