What's next? Judging sequences of binary events.

Full Abstract

The authors review research on judgments of random and nonrandom sequences involving binary events with a focus on studies documenting gambler's fallacy and hot hand beliefs. The domains of judgment include random devices, births, lotteries, sports performances, stock prices, and others. After discussing existing theories of sequence judgments, the authors conclude that in many everyday settings people have naive complex models of the mechanisms they believe generate observed events, and they rely on these models for explanations, predictions, and other inferences about event sequences. The authors next introduce an explanation-based, mental models framework for describing people's beliefs about binary sequences, based on 4 perceived characteristics of the sequence generator: randomness, intentionality, control, and goal complexity. Furthermore, they propose a Markov process framework as a useful theoretical notation for the description of mental models and for the analysis of actual event sequences. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Author information

Author/s: Oskarsson, An T (AT); Van Boven, Leaf (L); McClelland, Gary H (GH); Hastie, Reid (R);

Affiliation: Department of Psychology, University of Colorado at Boulder, USA. an.oskarsson(-atsign-)colorado.edu

Journal and publication information

Publication Type: Journal Article; Review

Journal: Psychological bulletin (Psychol Bull), published in United States. (Language: eng)

Reference: 2009-Mar; vol 135 (issue 2) : pp 262-85

Dates: Created 2009/03/03; Completed 2009/05/11;

PMID: 19254080, status: MEDLINE (last retrieval date: 5/11/2009, IMS Date: 11 May 2009 00:00:00)

Sourced from the National Library of Medicine. Abstract text and other information may be subject to copyright.

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