A quantum probability explanation for violations of 'rational' decision theory.

Full Abstract

Two experimental tasks in psychology, the two-stage gambling game and the Prisoner's Dilemma game, show that people violate the sure thing principle of decision theory. These paradoxical findings have resisted explanation by classical decision theory for over a decade. A quantum probability model, based on a Hilbert space representation and Schrödinger's equation, provides a simple and elegant explanation for this behaviour. The quantum model is compared with an equivalent Markov model and it is shown that the latter is unable to account for violations of the sure thing principle. Accordingly, it is argued that quantum probability provides a better framework for modelling human decision-making.

Author information

Author/s: Pothos, Emmanuel M (EM); Busemeyer, Jerome R (JR);

Affiliation: Department of Psychology, Swansea University, Swansea SA2 8PP, UK. e.m.pothos(-atsign-)swansea.ac.uk

Grants: R01 MH068346 (Agency:NIMH NIH HHS)

Journal and publication information

Publication Type: Journal Article; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

Journal: Proceedings. Biological sciences / The Royal Society (Proc Biol Sci), published in England. (Language: eng)

Reference: 2009-Jun; vol 276 (issue 1665) : pp 2171-8

Dates: Created 2009/05/11; Completed 2009/07/07;

PMID: 19324743, status: MEDLINE (last retrieval date: 7/24/2009, IMS Date: )

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