Predicted shortage of vascular surgeons in the United States: population and workload analysis.

Full Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the size of the future workforce in vascular surgery (VS) and the added cost associated with addressing the projected shortage in the United States. METHODS: The net supply (number of Vascular Surgeons [VSN] currently practicing, new graduates entering the workforce, and those retiring) for each decade was calculated. The projected population for each decade was determined by U.S. Census Bureau figures. Some assumptions of this model included: (1) In 2008, the population was 300,000,000; (2) There were 2783 board certified VSN in 2008; (3) VSN will practice 30 years from board certification to retirement; (4) There will be 105 board certifications and 93 retirements per year; (5) Vascular operations will remain at 284 per 100,000 population; (6) Salaries of trainees will be $50,000 with benefits of 30% and $15,000 of additional direct medical education costs. RESULTS: Population and workload analysis suggests that there will be a shortage of 330 surgeons (9.8%) and 399 surgeons (11.6%) by 2030, respectively. The cost of training enough VSN (in a six-year program) by 2030 will be between $1,166,400,000 and $1,199,520,000. CONCLUSIONS: A conservative estimate by both population and workload analysis, disregarding aging of the population, lifestyle choices of future VSN, and increasing demand for services, indicates a shortage of VSN in the future. Unless the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 is revised by Congress, the cost to train the additional VS workforce remains a significant barrier.

Author information

Author/s: Satiani, Bhagwan (B); Williams, Thomas E (TE); Go, Michael R (MR);

Affiliation: Division of Vascular Diseases and Surgery, Department of Surgery, The Ohio State University Medical Center and The Ohio State University Heart and Vascular Center, Columbus, Ohio 43210, USA. bhagwan.satiani(-atsign-)osumc.edu

Journal and publication information

Publication Type: Journal Article

Journal: Journal of vascular surgery : official publication, the Society for Vascular Surgery [and] International Society for Cardiovascular Surgery, North American Chapter (J Vasc Surg), published in United States. (Language: eng)

Reference: 2009-Oct; vol 50 (issue 4) : pp 946-52

Dates: Created 2009/09/29; Completed 2009/10/15;

PMID: 19703756, status: MEDLINE (last retrieval date: 10/15/2009, IMS Date: )

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