Research article summary (published 16 Sep 2009):

Highly variable spread rates in replicated biological invasions: fundamental limits to predictability.

Full Abstract

Although mean rates of spread for invasive species have been intensively studied, variance in spread rates has been neglected. Variance in spread rates can be driven exogenously by environmental variability or endogenously by demographic or genetic stochasticity in reproduction, survival, and dispersal. Endogenous variability is likely to be important in spread but has not been studied empirically. We show that endogenously generated variance in spread rates is remarkably high between replicated invasions of the flour beetle Tribolium castaneum in laboratory microcosms. The observed variation between replicate invasions cannot be explained by demographic stochasticity alone, which indicates inherent limitations to predictability in even the simplest ecological settings.

Author information

Author/s: Melbourne, Brett A (BA); Hastings, Alan (A);

Affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA. brett.melbourne(-atsign-)colorado.edu

Journal and publication information

Publication Type: Journal Article; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

Journal: Science (New York, N.Y.) (Science), published in United States. (Language: eng)

Reference: 2009-Sep; vol 325 (issue 5947) : pp 1536-9

Dates: Created 2009/09/18; Completed 2009/09/28;

PMID: 19762641, status: MEDLINE (last retrieved date: 9/28/2009)

Sourced from the National Library of Medicine. Abstract text and other information may be subject to copyright.

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MeSH headings (categories)

This article was linked to the MeSH Headings (categories) shown below.

Animals Ecosystem Environment Forecasting Linear Models

Models, Statistical Population Dynamics Reproduction Stochastic Processes Tribolium - physiology

Note: Bold headings indicate primary MeSH headings or qualifiers.

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